The Mortgage 101 Podcast: Episode 27 - The Sandlot: Playing Ball in a Shutdown Market

In Episode 27, hosts Anthony Valentino and Manley Haines use a Sandlot theme to navigate the 2025 housing market, now in day 17 of a government shutdown. They cover market updates (10-year Treasury at 4.14%, MBS prices at 99.7, 30-year fixed at 6.3%-6.4%), Gen Z’s creative homebuying strategies (co-buying, ADUs, tech-driven budgeting), and a credit score shakeup with VantageScore 4.0, which rewards rent and utility payments. The episode includes a 2025 rate tracker (October at 6.31%), shutdown impacts (IRS, SSA, FHA delays), and a buyer win story of floating down from 6.625% to 6.325%, saving $800/year. They emphasize preparation and grit to win in a tricky market.

Watch now: https://youtu.be/PUImm9JnCbc

[00:00] Welcome to Mortgage 101: Episode 27

Anthony: I’m Anthony Valentino, your numbers guy, stepping up for the Great American Mortgage Playoffs!

Manley: I’m Manley Haines, and with the government benched on day 13 of the shutdown—day 17 by airtime—it’s Sandlot time, FOREVER!

Anthony: We’re in extra innings with uncertainty ahead. Today’s lineup: rate review, shutdown tracker, Gen Z’s rookie season, and a credit score shakeup with VantageScore 4.0.

Manley: We’re making complex data as fun as summertime baseball. Grab your glove, tighten your budget, and let’s play ball! Like, follow, subscribe!

[01:37] Market Scoreboard: Precision vs. Grit

Manley: Like the pressed Little Leaguers challenging the Sandlot kids, today’s market is precision vs. grit.

Anthony: The 10-year Treasury’s at 4.14%, off September’s 4.25% high. MBS prices are steady at 99.7, near par with 5.0 UMBS.

Manley: That puts 30-year fixed rates at 6.3%-6.4%, the lowest in a year, and 15-year at 5.75%. Inflation’s at 2.9% (3.3% core), jobs slowed to 150,000, and builder permits rose 2%.

Anthony: Translation: the market’s throwing curveballs, but buyers are connecting. A drop from 6.7% to 6.3% on a $400,000 loan saves $100/month. We’re on track for 5.875%-6.25% year-end if yields hold.

[03:37] Shutdown Tracker: Squints’ Strategy

Manley: Lenders are like Squints pretending to drown, waiting for Washington’s rescue. IRS transcripts, SSA verifications, and FHA lights are red, with USDA on ice.

Anthony: Each day adds 2-3 business days to delays, costing buyers lock extension fees (0.02-0.05 points/15 days, or $400-$1,000 on a $400,000 loan).

Manley: Lenders are MacGyvering fixes—hand-signed returns, alternate verifications—but it’s time and money.

Anthony: Keep docs ready, respond fast, and check in daily with lenders to secure your “kiss of approval.”

[05:30] Gen Z’s Rookie Season

Manley: Gen Z’s hitting under the 4th of July lights, bringing the median first-time buyer age down from 36. 60% plan to buy within five years.

Anthony: A $400,000 home needs $115,000 income—70% more than 2019. It’s not work ethic; it’s affordability.

Manley: They’re co-buying with friends/family, moving remote, and building ADUs for income. Tech natives, 90% start online, half use AI budget apps, treating mortgages like fantasy baseball.

Anthony: Homeownership is their first firework show, proving they can play under the big lights.

[07:21] The Beast: Market Signals

Manley: The Fed’s like the Beast guarding the yard. The 10-year at 4.14%, 2-year at 3.5%—a 0.6% bull steepener signals confidence, not recession.

Anthony: Shutdown delays and Powell’s hint at ending quantitative tightening by year-end keep yields sticky. No cut promises yet—Congress and the Fed need to sync.

Manley: Until then, the Beast growls. Don’t release it, Ryan!

[08:54] Credit Score Shakeup: VantageScore 4.0

Anthony: Like Mr. Mertle handing Smalls a new Babe Ruth ball, the credit world’s changing. Fannie and Freddie are adopting VantageScore 4.0 by Q4 2025, alongside FICO.

Manley: VantageScore counts rent, utilities, and telecom, boosting thin-file buyers at the bottom of the economic K-curve.

Anthony: It rewards steady payments over perfect scores, helping those without assets. Start reporting rent now to build your stats.

[11:00] Buzzword Lineup

Ryan: Grumpy ump Ryan’s behind home plate. No pitch clock violations—let’s swing!

Rate Lock (Anthony)
Your promise to hold a rate (e.g., 6.3%). Pick your pitch and swing to avoid fees.

Yield Curve (Manley)
The market’s heartbeat—flat means tension, steep means optimism. We’re pitter-puttering.

DTI (Anthony)
Debt-to-income, your batting average. Keep it ≤45% for home runs.

MBS Rally (Manley)
Investors pile in, prices rise, rates dip—a bullpen boost.

FICO Rescore (Anthony)
A midgame credit update, like instant replay for your profile.

[12:36] Rate Tracker: 2025 Season Stats

Anthony: January 6.59% (sticky inflation), February 6.65% (hot jobs), March 6.53% (softer CPI), April 6.58% (oil/CPI uptick), May 6.50% (retail slowdown), June 6.48% (Fed pause), July 6.52% (strong GDP), August 6.47% (cut expectations), September 6.36% (Fed cut delivered), October 6.31% (shutdown fears, slower data).

Manley: We’re close to our 5.875%-6.25% year-end target. Small ball—patience and contact—wins championships.

[14:41] Big Win: Stealing Home

Anthony: A buyer locked at 6.625% but floated down to 6.325% as the market softened, saving $65/month, or $800/year.

Manley: Clean docs, clear communication, and team trust let them steal home plate. Heroes get remembered, but legends never die.

Anthony: Every closing’s a legend, like Christmas at month-end. Buyers in October’s final innings can win with focus.

[16:12] Final Thoughts

Manley: Shutdowns, sticky yields, and affordability are curveballs, but preparation and grit win. Keep docs ready, swing smart, and play for the World Series of homeownership.

Anthony: There’s always another pitch, another inning—stay in the game.

[17:00] Next Week & Knock-Knock

Manley: Next week: “Refi Radar,” “Babe Ruth Base Hits” for hot markets, and a listener mailbag.

Anthony: Knock, knock.

Manley: Who’s there?

Anthony: Babe.

Manley: Babe who?

Anthony: Babe Ruthless about rates—don’t let fear keep you on the bench!

Manley: You’re killing me, Smalls!

FAQ

How does the shutdown affect loans?
IRS transcript delays, SSA verification pauses, FHA/USDA backlogs, and flood insurance holds add 2-3 days per day of shutdown, costing $400-$1,000 in lock fees for a $400,000 loan.

What is VantageScore 4.0?
A new credit model by Q4 2025, counting rent, utilities, and telecom to boost scores for thin-file buyers, rewarding steady payments.

How are Gen Z buying homes?
Co-buying, building ADUs for income, moving remote, and using AI budget apps to afford homes needing $115,000 income.

Why are rates at 6.3%-6.4%?
MBS prices at 99.7 and 10-year Treasury at 4.14% reflect steady inflation (2.9%) and slower jobs data, with shutdown fears keeping rates sticky.