We Told You to Buy Last Week. This Week We're Saying Rent. Here's Why Both Are Right.

Goldman Sachs just told its own clients not to expect a rate cut until next year — and pushed that forecast even further out, to next summer. If you've been waiting for rates to bail you out, that wait just got a lot longer than anybody wants to admit.

Which is exactly why this week on The Mortgage 101 Podcast, Manley and Anthony are talking about why renting — yes, renting — might actually be the smartest move you can make right now. And why that's actually great news if you're one of the people buying anyway.

Wait, Didn't You Say the Window Was Closing Last Week?

Fair question. Last week, Manley and Anthony were the guys saying the window is closing, rates could move higher, home prices could keep climbing, and buyers should get on the elevator before it leaves without them.

Seven days later, they're sitting here saying renting might be winning. Here's the part that matters: they still believe what they said last week. Rates can move higher. Property values can keep climbing. For the right buyer, that window really can be getting smaller.

But there's a rule that overrides all of it: the math still has to work. The math will tell you the story. And sometimes, the math just doesn't work.

Meet the Couple Behind This Episode

Manley and Anthony talk to this couple almost every week. They're in their mid-30s, solid jobs, decent savings, and they've been renting the same one-bedroom apartment for about three years. During that time, they watched prices go up, rates go up, and affordability get harder — and somewhere along the way, they became convinced that if they don't buy in the next 30 days, they'll never be able to buy at all.

Here's what makes them interesting: they're not people who skipped their homework. They've run the spreadsheets more than most buyers Manley and Anthony talk to. They've looked at the payment, the savings, and what they can actually afford. But they've also heard "you're going to miss it" so many times that even with a solid spreadsheet in front of them, fear started sounding like math. And it's not.

That's the trap — the spreadsheet says one thing, and the fear of missing out says something completely different.

The Real Numbers: $2,000 Rent vs. $2,900 Mortgage

Here's what this couple's spreadsheet actually says. They're paying about $2,000 a month in rent right now. A house they're looking at today, with mortgage, taxes, and insurance, puts them closer to $2,900 a month. That's $900 more every month — almost $11,000 more a year. That's a 43% jump in housing cost.

Forget the elevator for a second. Forget where rates might be six months from now. Forget whether the house appreciates another 2%. The real question is: can this couple comfortably take another $900 out of their life every single month and put it toward housing? Because qualifying for a payment isn't the question. Being comfortable living with it is the question.

Fear Is a Terrible Cosigner

Pretending that $900 difference doesn't matter is how somebody ends up eating instant ramen seven days a week in year one. That's not strategy — that's fear making a financial decision for a 30-year loan. And fear is a terrible cosigner.

For this couple, the math was already telling the story. They just weren't trusting it. The window can be closing, and it still might not be your window. If the math works and you're ready, there's still a real argument for buying now — but nobody should be told to jump from a comfortable $2,000 rent payment to $2,900 just because they're afraid the elevator will leave without them.

And it's not just this one couple. It's a generational pattern right now — lifestyle and math simply aren't lining up for a lot of people. Which is how two mortgage guys who said "buy now" last week ended up telling someone to keep renting this week.

But Waiting Isn't Free Either

Here's where it gets harder. Just because the math doesn't work for this couple today doesn't mean waiting costs them nothing. Rates aren't waiting for them. Home prices aren't waiting for them. Inflation definitely isn't waiting for them.

Mortgage rates: The Federal Reserve's own outlook keeps sliding further out, largely due to ongoing conflict driving energy prices — and higher energy prices create inflation, which makes it harder for the Fed to cut rates. Goldman Sachs has pushed its rate cut prediction to June and December of next year. Bank of America is now talking about July and September of 2027. When the people paid to forecast this stuff push their own bets back that far, that's worth paying attention to.

Home prices: The median existing home price nationally is now over $440,000 — almost 2% higher than a year ago, even with mortgage rates sitting above 6.5%. Expensive money didn't crash prices. Inventory is sitting around 4.6 months, which is improved, but it's still not a national oversupply of homes.

Rent: If this couple's $2,000 rent grows at around 2% a year, it's a little over $2,100 by 2028. Not catastrophic, but not nothing. Waiting has a cost too — and sitting frozen isn't the same as renting on purpose.

Renting on Purpose vs. Sitting Frozen

There's a real difference between renting on purpose and sitting frozen. If this couple rents another 12 months, the question becomes: what happens during those 12 months? Does the down payment get bigger? Do they pay off a car? Get rid of credit cards? Does income increase? Does credit improve? Does that $900 gap shrink to $500 or $300?

That's how the math changes — not by wishing, but by changing the inputs. And if they're building a down payment, that money needs a home too. Inflation is still above the Fed's target, so money sitting around earning almost nothing is quietly losing purchasing power — but house money probably shouldn't be sitting somewhere highly volatile either, especially in an environment where one headline can move markets overnight.

The real question for this couple wasn't "do we buy or do we rent?" It was: do we buy today, or do we rent for another year with purpose? That's a completely different question.

What Manley and Anthony Actually Told Them: Don't Buy

Think about that for a second. This is a mortgage podcast, hosted by two guys who make their living helping people get mortgages — and they told this couple not to get one. Not because they couldn't qualify. Manley and Anthony could have gotten them approved and probably into the house. But qualifying for a $2,900 monthly payment doesn't mean you're comfortable paying it. The underwriting guidelines don't live your life. You do.

For this couple, renting is the right move — for now. They're not giving up on homeownership, and they're not waiting around for someone to rescue them. They're giving themselves another year to get into a stronger position, on purpose: stack the down payment, pay down debt, know their numbers, get pre-approved so they know exactly what reality looks like instead of guessing. Know your specific housing market, not just the national headlines. Make the year accomplish something.

The Hidden Upside of High Mortgage Rates

Here's where the story takes another turn. This couple just stepped out of the market. They're not making offers, they're not at Saturday's open house, and they're not competing against you — and neither are the thousands of other people making the same calculation.

Everybody talks about high mortgage rates like they're only a negative. They're not. High rates also remove competition. Fewer buyers create leverage — more negotiating room, seller concessions, closing cost credits, rate buydowns, repairs, and even the ability to walk away from a house you don't love. When you're not competing against 15 other offers, you're not just surviving the market — it's a different experience entirely. Sellers are offering things today they weren't offering a couple of years ago. Just ask. Maybe the answer is no. But at least there's a conversation again.

Renting Can Win. Buying Can Win. At the Same Time.

That's the conclusion here: renting can be winning, and buying can be winning, at the exact same time — because there isn't one answer for everybody. There's your answer, and your math has to tell you what it is.

If your numbers say rent, rent — but make it count. If your numbers say buy, buy — and last week's message still stands: don't sit around waiting for a perfect market that may never show up.

Here's the irony: if mortgage rates eventually do come down, the couple sitting on the sidelines today comes right back into the market — along with everybody else who was waiting beside them. Suddenly the elevator gets crowded again. Which is exactly why last week's opportunity can still be real, while renting can still be the right call for somebody else today. Both things can be true. What's good for one person may be bad for another — it's all about lifestyle and what you're willing to compromise.

This Week's Actual Numbers

• 30-year fixed mortgage rate: ~6.69% (up slightly from 6.6% last week)
• Median existing home price (national): $446,000
• Existing home inventory: ~6.4 months (improved, but still leans toward sellers nationally)
• Rent growth: ~2% (calmed down compared to a few years ago, but still moving)
• 10-year Treasury yield: ~4.71% (up from ~4.65% late last week — and when this yield moves higher, mortgage rates tend to follow)

Is It Your Window?

The war hasn't crashed the housing market, and it hasn't rescued everyone waiting for cheap money either. So maybe renting is winning for you right now. If it is, that's good — then rent, use the time, build savings, improve your numbers, and put yourself in a better position 12 months from now than you are today. Because the math still has to work.

Last week's message was that the window may be closing. That's still true. This week adds one more rule: it has to be your window — and the math will tell you whether it is or isn't.

If you're not sure what your numbers actually say, that's exactly where Manley and Anthony can help. No panic, no pressure — just help understanding what the math is telling you, so fear doesn't get to make a 30-year decision on your behalf.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is it better to rent or buy right now? It depends entirely on your own numbers — not the headlines. If the monthly cost difference between renting and buying is more than you can comfortably absorb, renting on purpose (while building your down payment and improving your position) may be the smarter move. If the math works and you're ready, buying can still make sense.

Why do mortgage rates keep staying high? Ongoing global conflict has kept energy prices volatile, which pushes inflation expectations higher. Higher inflation expectations push bond yields — including the 10-year Treasury — higher, and mortgage rates are priced off that bond market. Major banks like Goldman Sachs and Bank of America have pushed their rate cut forecasts out to 2027.

Does renting instead of buying mean giving up on homeownership? No. Renting "on purpose" means using the time to stack your down payment, pay down debt, improve your credit, and get pre-approved — so you're in a stronger position when your numbers do work.

Is there any upside to high mortgage rates for buyers? Yes. Higher rates reduce buyer competition, which can create more negotiating leverage — seller concessions, closing cost credits, rate buydowns, and repairs that weren't common when rates were low and competition was fierce.

What's the risk of waiting for rates to drop before buying? When rates eventually do drop, the buyers who were sitting on the sidelines come back into the market all at once, along with everyone else who was waiting. That can quickly recreate the competitive, low-inventory conditions buyers were trying to avoid in the first place.